Second Decentraland Land Auction Announced! How to Prepare and What to Expect.
Posted On November 13, 2018
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The second Decentraland auction for the remaining ~9,300 unowned land parcels has been announced to take place in second week of December.
Exciting times! Personally, I’ve been waiting for this for almost a year.
First Land Auction
The First Land Auction that took place in Late 2017 saw over 161 million MANA spent on 34,356 parcels of LAND! A whopping $30Million Spent on Digital land.
All of that was burnt and removed out of circulation which is why the price kept steady after the auction. The auction ended with around 9,300 parcels still classified unowned and temporarily locked, (the dark grey/black pixels on the below image)
These are the ones that will be up for grabs.
Second Land Auction Core Points
Note – these still need to be confirmed but from what I’ve heard/read so far,
9,331 Parcels up for grabs
Some Districts, (purple shapes), may be dissolved and their area turned into land to be auctioned off too. Might open the doors for more premium land.
Dutch Auction Style: This is different to the first auction format. Prices will be starting really high and come down gradually over the course of two weeks till someone pulls the trigger and buys. No biding. Just a buy order. The team is also ensuring that multiple parcels can be bought at once which will avoid others from sniping and messing up peoples estate plans.
Two weeks duration starting in the second week of December.
MANA spent on LAND during the auction will be burned, or removed from circulation.
Although the first auction saw the purchase of many ‘premium land’ there is still some decent spots left in between popular districts not to mention more land might be available from dissolving stagnant districts.
Most Popular Areas
The Decentraland land market has matured in a way that gives us deep insight into land valuation.
It’s clear that lands connected to roads or within close proximity to districts are more valuable than those on the far outskirts.
The closer you get to the centre the more valuable land seems to be.
If I were to use my-dcl.com to show the cheapest land currently on the market place we will see the floor is 6,900 MANA for the cheapest land.
But it’s important to note that if the 10 cheapest lands are bought than the floor quickly changes to around 10,000 MANA. Considering we see 20-60 land sales daily, this could happen any time!
Also, the cheapest lands seem to be on the far outskirts of the map where there probably won’t be much action for some time.
Now, if we filter this tool to show us only lands connected to roads, ordered by the cheapest, we get 12,500 MANA being the cheapest road parcel available.
Again, if just the bottom 4-8 get bought than we could quickly see a bottom of 17,000 MANA.
Knowing that the most popular ares are close to districts and roads I think the below sections, highlighted in red, will see the most action.
These areas are close to big districts and are open to big estate purchases. The more Decentraland matures, the more it’s clear that the value is in estates. Estates are simply 2 or more grouped together single parcels. The more land you have grouped together, the higher you can build!
My Theories On How The Auction Will Go Down
People are going to run out of money.
If we take a very conservative 5,000 MANA per parcel to be spent in the auction then with 9,331 land up for grabs, that’s 46M mana that needs to be spent or bought to the table collectively from the community.
Surely there will be some bigger purchases than 5,000 MANA. I’m sure many will go for 20,000 MANA+.
46Million MANA is a lot to bring to the table even as a whole community. Especially when taking into consideration that MANA is now trading at $0.10 and is expected to go higher as auction date gets closer. In the first auction many people had mana from ICO, back when it was around 2 cents!
I think there will be a few big players that will spend a ton of money acquiring the exact parcels they want.
I’m going to wait till the later stages of the auction to make a move. I’m not spending more than market price to get the parcels I want and already have over 100 lands!
MANA Token Could Sky Rocket
MANA has moved 40-50% within the last 30 days. That’s a big deal considering most of the market is in a declining state. As we get closer to auction and people need to stock up on MANA, this could see the token climb quite a bit.
If this upwards movement hits top 50 on Coinmarketcap then it could attract the attention of other investors that hold top 10-20 coins who are sick of their coins not moving.
If that happens and they jump in to the very attractive < $1 Mana token price than who knows how high this could go!
But what effect will this have on the Land auction? We could see more people deciding to just hodl their MANA then buy land which could see some pretty cheap, (relative to MANA), land go during the latter stages of the auction.
Not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing but something to keep in mind as a possibility.
Inner City Areas will Become more Valuable
Once the auction is finished and there’s no more unowned parcels up for grabs, the only option for new investors is to buy from current holders.
It also removes all the black squares/area from the Decentraland map which removes the perception that there is still plenty of land to buy.
The inner city areas are just going to get harder and harder to buy into as many people have priced their parcels ridiculously high and slowly land is becoming a scarcer buy there.
There is still a lot to be figured out. Much is still very unchartered territory so I will be mostly watching from the sidelines unless there are some clear money making opportunities.
It will be a very interesting December and am hyped to see it play out!